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Ready for Russia (clockwise from left): Luis Suárez and Uruguay, Germany’s Timo Werner; Tim Cahill of Australia; Jon Obi Mikel of Nigeria; Croatia’s Luka Modric and Neymar of Brazil.
Ready for Russia (clockwise from left): Luis Suárez and Uruguay, Germany’s Timo Werner; Tim Cahill of Australia; Jon Obi Mikel of Nigeria; Croatia’s Luka Modric and Neymar of Brazil. Composite: Getty Images.
Ready for Russia (clockwise from left): Luis Suárez and Uruguay, Germany’s Timo Werner; Tim Cahill of Australia; Jon Obi Mikel of Nigeria; Croatia’s Luka Modric and Neymar of Brazil. Composite: Getty Images.

World Cup power rankings: how the 32 qualifiers for Russia shape up

This article is more than 6 years old

The teams who are heading for the 2018 World Cup finals have all been in action over the past week and while Germany and Brazil lead the way there are plenty of other sides who will fancy their chances in Russia

1) Germany

Joachim Löw is attempting to become the first manager to win successive World Cups since Italy’s Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938, and his masterplan is nearing completion. The experiment to blood some of Germany’s best young prospects at the Confederations Cup last summer is paying dividends, with Timo Werner emerging as a top-class option to lead the line having scored seven times in 10 international appearances. The draw against France on Tuesday thanks to Lars Stindl’s last-minute equaliser maintained an unbeaten record that stretches back to Euro 2016 against the same opponents and Löw’s side remain the team to beat next summer.

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2) Brazil

The trauma experienced by those who played in the 7-1 mauling by Germany nearly four years ago has been banished by a series of performances and results more befitting of the five-times world champions, and Brazil meet their conquerors from that infamous night in Belo Horizonte for the first time since that semi-final defeat in a friendly at the end of March in Berlin. But while the Seleção will be keen to get one over on the team they beat to win their last final, in 2002, more significant battles lie ahead, with Dani Alves and Marcelo among those likely to be playing in their last World Cup.

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3) Spain

An entertaining 3-3 draw with next year’s hosts on Tuesday in St Petersburg showed there is still plenty of work for Julen Lopetegui to do, although the former under-21 coach will be confident his side can be real contenders again after the disappointing defence of their crown last time around. A new crop of players well known to the manager from various youth age groups – including the Real Madrid sensation Marco Asensio – is starting to make a mark alongside the more established names, which bodes well for La Roja’s chances. The only question mark may be at the back, where the ageing Sergio Ramos and Gerard Piqué will have to forget their bruising experiences in Brazil.

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Isco, here in action against Costa Rica’s Cristian Gamboa, has made tremendous progress for Spain and Real Madrid. Photograph: Jon Nazca/Reuters

4) France

With endless amounts of top-class players to choose from all over the pitch, Didier Deschamps faces a headache just selecting a 23-man squad. So imagine how hard it must be to settle on 11. Given the manager’s tendency to pick Olivier Giroud in the big matches, Alexandre Lacazette made his task even more complex with two goals against Germany on Tuesday in a friendly that was high on quality throughout. The French Federation has extended the contract of the man who captained Les Bleus to their 1998 victory on home soil and Deschamps can expect his side to be there or thereabouts once again in Russia.

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5) Belgium

Roberto Martínez has been handed the reins to one of Europe’s most talented squads and after their straightforward qualification the former Everton and Wigan manager is now fine-tuning. The narrow win over Japan courtesy of Romelu Lukaku’s 31st international goal followed a topsy-turvy 3-3 draw against Mexico that resembled some of his matches in charge at the DW Stadium, with defending less of a priority. Belgium have undoubted quality in every position to go all the way. The question is whether Martínez is the man to put the complicated jigsaw together.

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Quick Guide

World Cup 2018: the draw

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When is it?

The group stage draw will take place on Friday 1 December (3pm GMT/6pm local) at the State Kremlin Palace in Moscow. Organisers promise a 'colourful show representing local culture' before the balls are drawn.

How does it work?

Hosts Russia will be seeded in Group A. The 31 qualifiers will be split into four pots, based on the October world rankings. Teams from the same confederation will be kept apart – although a maximum of two Uefa sides can be drawn together.

The four pots

Pot 1: Russia (hosts, Group A), Germany, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Poland, France.

Pot 2: Spain, Peru, Switzerland, England, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, Croatia.

Pot 3: Denmark, Iceland, Costa Rica, Sweden, Tunisia, Egypt, Senegal, Iran.

Pot 4: Serbia, Nigeria, Australia, Japan, Morocco, Panama, South Korea, Saudi Arabia.

What will England fans be hoping for?

It's best not to presume anything with England but a group with, say, Brazil, Iceland and Nigeria would look more daunting than facing Poland, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia. You can test the permutations for yourself with our interactive draw simulator.

What else to look out for

2010 winners Spain are somehow in pot two and will be the ones to avoid for all the top seeds. There are only two debutants in Iceland and Panama but three teams have qualified for the first time this century – Peru (first since 1982), Egypt (1990) and Morocco (1998). Or if you like an underdog, how about backing the current lowest-ranked team? It's the hosts, Russia.

Photograph: Arsen Galstyan Handout/ADIDAS PRESS SERVICE
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6) Portugal

The European champions made a meal of qualifying until the last match and have generally gone under the radar since their surprise triumph in Paris last year. But under Fernando Santos Portugal must be viewed as a genuine threat to any side given their clinical – if slightly dull – performances in winning their first senior tournament. A 1-1 draw with an experimental USA side on Tuesday followed a routine win over Saudi Arabia without Cristiano Ronaldo, who of course will be vital to their chances of emulating Spain’s back-to-back triumphs in 2008 and 2010.

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7) Nigeria

Rounded off their qualifying formalities with a draw in Algeria before the brilliant comeback from two goals down to beat Argentina 4-2 in the 2018 host city Krasnodar on Tuesday. That showed there is plenty for Gernot Rohr to be positive about as the German manager continues to help the Super Eagles forget their failure to qualify for the past two editions of the Africa Cup of Nations. Having successfully navigated a tricky group and shown what this team are capable of against top-class opposition, the challenge is to see if a squad that contains many of the players that reached the last 16 in 2014 can go at least one better in Russia.

Player to watch Alex Iwobi

Nigeria’s Ahmed Musa keeps his eye on the ball during the remarkable 4-2 against Argentina in Krasnodar. Photograph: Yuri Kochetkov/EPA

8) Poland

The confidence Adam Nawalka’s side displayed in securing their qualification last month seemed a distant memory in the two disappointing friendlies this week, with Poland ending up with no goals and a first home defeat since last summer. Their expected position as one of the seeded nations in Russia should ensure a smooth passage to the knockout stages for the first time since losing 4-0 to Brazil in the 1986 last 16 but an overreliance on Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski was highlighted in the 0-0 draw against Uruguay and 1-0 defeat to Mexico.

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9) Argentina

After Lionel Messi’s rescue act against Ecuador, the last thing Argentina needed was more drama but the 4-2 defeat by Nigeria was an indication that Jorge Sampaoli’s problems run deep. Coasting at 2-0 in the first half, they were outclassed after Kelechi Iheanacho pulled one back for Nigeria and ended up losing heavily to the side they beat in the group stages in 2014. Having taken Chile to victory in the Copa América, Sampaoli knows what tournament football is all about and he will realise there is time to get his house in order.

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10) Uruguay

A 2-1 defeat by Austria was not exactly what Óscar Tabárez had in mind after sealing qualification with second place in the South American table, although the clean sheet in the 0-0 draw with Poland last week was at least progress for an area of the team that has been a weakness of late. With Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani leading the line, Uruguay will be a match for most if they can create enough chances and there are signs that a new generation of young players, led by Rodrigo Bentancur of Juventus, is up to the challenge. Their presence in pot two means an immediate reunion with England cannot happen but La Celeste remain likely candidates for the knockout stages at the very least.

Player to watch Rodrigo Bentancur

Rodrigo Bentancur is one of the new generation of Uruguay players for which there are high hopes. Photograph: Adam Nurkiewicz/Getty Images

11) Mexico

Juan Carlos Osorio saw his side draw 3-3 with Belgium last week before inflicting a rare home defeat on Poland and confidence should be high in El Tri’s camp after cantering to the top of their qualifying group. The propensity to make things difficult for themselves has lifted in recent years and only a last-minute equaliser from Portugal denied Mexico a place in the Confederations Cup final last summer. Given a decent draw, they will fancy their chances of reaching the quarter-finals for the first time at an overseas World Cup.

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12) Iceland

Don’t read too much into Iceland’s most recent result. The 1-1 draw with Qatar on Tuesday was hardly the same side that saw off Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey in qualifying and are equipped with crucial big-tournament experience thanks to their run to the quarter-finals at Euro 2016. The manager, Heimir Hallgrimsson, also remains from that historic achievement, albeit without Lars Lagerback. Expect Iceland to be in with a strong chance of making it through their group once again, whoever they are drawn against.

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13) Croatia

A clinical performance in the first leg of their play-off against Greece ensured Croatia will be in Russia next year after an indifferent qualification campaign that saw them finish behind Iceland in hotly contested Group I. Any team featuring Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic should never be discounted and the appointment of Zlatko Dalic after the sacking of Ante Cacic in October appears to have had the required effect. The former under-21 assistant coach is expected to be offered a permanent contract to lead the team at the World Cup but must find a way of rejuvenating an ageing squad.

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14) England

Keeping out two of the best teams in the world in home friendlies with an inexperienced squad is one thing, but the concern for England’s immediate prospects must be Gareth Southgate’s lack of creativity in midfield. The return of Adam Lallana from injury cannot come soon enough, while Southgate will hope Jack Wilshere is handed an extended run in Arsenal’s first team. The injection of youth should provide some competition, although you sense the brittleness England have shown at recent major tournaments is still lurking ominously in the background.

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15) Senegal

The manner in which Aliou Cissé’s side brushed aside South Africa in Polokwane on Saturday should be an ominous warning that this Senegal team mean business. Nearly 14 years have passed since the Teranga Lions became only the second African team to reach the World Cup quarter-finals, beating the holders France in their opening match before losing after extra-time to Turkey. Whether they have the ability to emulate the class of 2002 will be intriguing to see but with star performers such as Liverpool’s Sadio Mané and the outstanding Kalidou Koulibaly of Napoli, they will be ones to avoid in next month’s draw.

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16) Sweden

The famous victory over Italy was the culmination of a heroic qualification campaign that saw Janne Andersson’s side also finish above the 2014 semi-finalists Holland. A first World Cup appearance since 2006, when they were beaten by Germany in the last-16, beckons for a group that has shown spirit in abundance, if not the ability of previous generations. Andersson was annoyed by suggestions that Zlatan Ibrahimovic could come out of retirement after the 0-0 draw in Milan that confirmed their place in Russia, admitting that his players had “found another style” since the Manchester United striker’s departure after Euro 2016.

Player to watch Emil Forsberg

17) Denmark

Christian Eriksen provided the requisite class to catapult Denmark past Ireland with his ninth, 10th and 11th goals in the qualifying campaign and the Tottenham schemer would be an asset to any team. He will hope the progress made by team-mates such as Pione Sisto of Celta Vigo and Chelsea’s Andreas Christensen can help Age Hareide guide the squad through the group stages as Denmark attempt to emulate their quarter-final appearance at France ’98. The momentum gained from a strong finish to qualification that culminated in the 5-1 thrashing in Dublin will give supporters hope that a run to the knockout stages is a real possibility.

Player to watch Christian Eriksen

Christian Eriksen celebrates after scoring Denmark’s their third goal in the second-leg of the play-off against Republic of Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images

18) Morocco

Back at the World Cup for the first time since 1998, Hervé Renard’s side came through a tricky group without conceding a goal. The 2-0 victory over Ivory Coast in Abidjan was a masterclass in defensive organisation from their French manager, who has excelled in international football but struggled to replicate that at club level. Renard received a phone call from Morocco’s King Mohammed VI after that match to congratulate him on the achievement but the Atlas Lions will not just be making up the numbers in Russia, with talented players in every position who could make quite an impact.

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19) Serbia

The sacking of Slavoljub Muslin at the end of October was a curious way to thank the veteran manager for securing qualification at the expense of Wales and the Republic of Ireland. Muslin lost one of his 10 matches in charge and despite a draw against South Korea following the comfortable victory over China last week, it is unclear whether the caretaker and former assistant Mladen Krstajic will be the man tasked with leading Serbia to the World Cup. A talented squad led by the veteran Branislav Ivanovic and Manchester United’s Nemanja Matic has the ability to make a real impression if they can avoid the divisions that marred their World Cup in 2010.

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20) Colombia

Without a win since thrashing Cameroon in a friendly in June, Colombia at least put that statistic to bed by beating China 4-0 on Tuesday but remain short of form after scraping through qualification. The friendly defeat by South Korea last week was more of an indication of the major issues facing manager José Pekerman in the coming months as he bids to repeat 2014’s run to the last eight. A group-stage exit appears more likely, however, unless Pekerman can find a solution to the team’s severe lack of goals over the past two years despite Radamel Falcao’s return to form.

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21) Egypt

Following all the celebrations last month, a 1-1 draw against Ghana in Kumasi on Sunday ended a long journey for Héctor Cúper’s team. Now the task for their Argentinian manager will be to prepare for a first World Cup since 1990 in the knowledge that the Pharaohs have not won away from home since beating Burkina Faso on penalties in the semi-final of the Africa Cup of Nations back in February. Ensuring that record is a distant memory by the time the tournament begins in June will be the priority if Egypt are to fulfil Cúper’s wish and reach the knockout stages for the first time.

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Mohamed Salah celebrates after Egypt beating Congo to qualify for the World Cup in October. Photograph: Nariman El-Mofty/AP

22) Switzerland

The nail-biting win over Northern Ireland in the play-offs produced a widespread sigh of relief in the Swiss ranks, after they blew their perfect start to qualification with the damaging defeat by Portugal last month. The manager, Vladimir Petkovic, has a number of talented players in a relatively young squad but must find the best combination. A fourth successive World Cup after years of underachievement in the 1970s and 80s is evidence that Switzerland have become regulars at this level but after being seeded for the last tournament, they may find things harder this time.

Player to watch Ricardo Rodríguez

23) Peru

Ricardo Gareca’s side became the last to qualify for Russia as they beat New Zealand 2-0 on aggregate in the play-offs on Wednesday night. Having finished fifth in the South American qualifying table, securing the play-off position thanks to a David Ospina own goal 13 minutes from time in the last qualifier, they edged out Chile and have enough talent to challenge for a place in the knockout stage. A lot will depend on whether the Argentinian Gareca can again inspire his players to over-achieve, just as he did at the Copa América two years ago when Peru finished third. Paolo Guerrero, formerly of Bayern Munich and Hamburg, is still, at 33, the heartbeat of the team.

Player to watch Paolo Guerrero

24) Russia

It has not been the easiest year since the former goalkeeper Stanislav Cherchesov was appointed to replace Hull’s Leonid Slutsky after the disappointing group stage exit at Euro 2016. The hosts have been set the target of reaching the semi-finals but, even being seeded in the draw, that looks beyond a squad with few stars. Krasnodar’s Fedor Smolov scored twice in the morale-boosting comeback draw with Spain on Tuesday and there are high hopes for CSKA Moscow midfielder Aleksandr Golovin. Escaping the group stages would appear to be the limit of their ambitions, although home advantage could provide a vital boost if Cherchesov can inspire some positivity early on.

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Hosts Russia celebrated a 3-3 draw with Spain this week but have a squad of few stars. Photograph: Alexander Demianchuk/TASS

25) Costa Rica

Achieving positive results in Europe has traditionally proven to be Costa Rica’s achilles heel and the 1-0 loss to Hungary this week was more evidence of that. But while a run to the quarter-finals may be beyond them this time, the manager, Oscar Ramírez, has an experienced group at his disposal who were worthy runners-up to Mexico in Concacaf qualifying and can expect to be a threat in pot three. The midfielder Gerson Torres leads a new generation that has so far struggled to make the breakthrough into the senior side, while Real Madrid’s goalkeeper Keylor Navas provides a considerable safety net.

Player to watch Keylor Navas

26) Iran

A pair of impressive friendly victories over Panama and Venezuela this week should provide encouragement that Iran can have a real impact next summer. Their comfortable qualification under the former Manchester United assistant Carlos Queiroz featured a number of dogged defensive displays – especially on the road – and their chances of reaching the knockout stages may rest on their ability to score enough goals. The friendly with Morocco scheduled for January could provide more answers, with Queiroz having seen his side draw away against hosts Russia in October.

Player to watch Sardar Azmoun

27) Japan

Brushed aside by Brazil in their friendly last week, Japan were narrow losers against Belgium on Tuesday in a much improved performance. Having rejected the chance to take charge of his native Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2015, the manager, Vahid Halilhodzic, has been under some pressure in a nation that now expects rather than hopes to make it through the group stages. His squad contains several players with experience of European football even if none of them are exactly household names.

Player to watch Yosuke Ideguchi

Japan’s Tomoaki Makino in action with Belgium’s Kevin De Bruyne. Photograph: Eric Vidal/Reuters

28) Tunisia

The failure to qualify for the past two World Cups was put to bed after a nervy 0-0 draw in their final match against Libya on Saturday, meaning that Nabil Maaloul’s side pipped DR Congo to top spot by a point. The former midfielder is only the second Tunisian manager to guide his country to the finals, having only taken over in April, and remains unbeaten in his five matches. But a dismal record at tournaments that has seen Tunisia win just once in 12 attempts at the World Cup will be difficult to reverse despite a young squad that should still have its best years ahead.

Player to watch Youssef Msakni

29) South Korea

Having finally ended a dismal winless run that stretched back to March by beating Colombia in Suwon last week, Korea followed that up with a 1-1 draw against Serbia on Tuesday thanks to a penalty from experienced midfielder Koo Ja-cheol of Augsburg. Yet aside from him and Tottenham’s Son Heung-min, who scored both goals against Colombia, it is a squad lacking in obvious talent that has struggled to adapt to the manager, Shin Tae-yong, and his methods since he was appointed in July. A repeat of the 2002 heroics seems unlikely.

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30) Panama

A creditable draw against Wales in Cardiff on Tuesday shows that the World Cup debutants will be no pushovers, although they face a tall order to extend their stay in Russia beyond three matches. The manager Hernán Gómez has plenty of experience at this level after taking charge of his native Colombia in 1998 and guiding Ecuador to their first World Cup four years later. He will need to illustrate that and much more if a team fearturing only a handful of players with European experience are to make any impact.

Player to watch Anibal Godoy

31) Saudi Arabia

A 3-0 friendly defeat by Portugal last week provided a helpful barometer of where Edgardo Bauza’s side find themselves six months out from Russia. The former Argentina manager was appointed in September to replace the Dutchman Bert van Marwijk and has inherited a side who have struggled away from home for several years. The 1-0 reverse against Bulgaria on Monday provided more evidence of this and they will need to improve considerably to follow in the footsteps of the 1994 side who reached the knockout stages under Jorge Solari.

Player to watch Mohammad al-Sahlawi

32) Australia

The exhilaration at reaching a fourth successive World Cup following the play-off victory over Honduras may not last long if Australia revert to type in Russia. A marathon qualifying campaign that began in June 2015 against Kyrgyzstan was extended by another four matches after the failure to finish ahead of Saudi Arabia for the second automatic spot and it is clear manager Ange Postecoglou has some major problems. In particular, finding an alternative match winner to veteran Tim Cahill will be a major priority between now and the opening match in Russia.

Player to watch Aaron Mooy

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